Economic Review – January 2022

Our monthly economic review is intended to provide background to recent developments in investment markets as well as to give an indication of how some key issues could impact in the future.

Overview

INFLATIONARY PRESSURES MOUNT

Official statistics show the UK headline rate of inflation now stands at a 10-year high, with surveys pointing to further upward pressure as firms continue to report rapidly-rising cost burdens.

RATE RISE SPECULATION INTENSIFIES

The Chief Economist at the Bank of England (BoE) has given a clear hint that interest rates are set to rise soon, although the emergence of the Omicron variant has cast some doubt over the exact timing.

MARKETS

Discovery of the Omicron variant impacted markets
as investors considered the risk to the global economic recovery. After initial market falls, stocks largely regained their composure on Monday 29 November, as indices recovered some of the losses seen during the previous trading session.

JOBS MARKET WITHSTANDS FURLOUGH END

The latest set of employment statistics suggests the demise of furlough has done little to dent the strong labour market recovery that has been evident over recent months.

RETAILERS ENJOY EARLY CHRISTMAS LIFT

An early Christmas spending spree provided retailers with a significant boost in October, while survey evidence suggests sales growth looks set to continue into the festive period.