Our monthly economic review is intended to provide background to recent developments in investment markets as well as to give an indication of how some key issues could impact in the future.

Overview

UK ECONOMY EXPANDS 0.5% IN Q3

Recent data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) estimates that the UK economy expanded by 0.5% in Q3 2016. Although slower than the 0.7% growth rate experienced in the second quarter, this was stronger growth than many analysts estimated, reducing expectations of an interest rate cut at the Bank of England’s next Monetary Policy Committee meeting on 3 November.

UK INFLATION RISES TO 1%

The UK’s Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 1% in the year to September, significantly higher than the 0.6% rise recorded in the year to August, according to the latest figures released by the ONS. The CPI last reached 1% in November 2014.

MARKETS

October reflected contrary investor sentiment in global equities with the UK’s FTSE100 gaining just short of 1% (0.8%), ending October at 6,954.22, whilst mid-month falling just 6.48 points short of its all-time high. The wider FTSE250 managed to slip by 1.83% to 17,544.2 and the junior AIM market seeing just a small lift of 0.38% to 822.2.

IT’S HEATHROW EXPANSION THEN!

After years of procrastination and heated debate, the Government announced on 25 October that a third runway will be built at London’s Heathrow airport.

CHANGE OF FORTUNE FOR EUROZONE ECONOMY

The influential and closely followed Markit Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the eurozone countries rose to 53.7 in October. A rise from the 52.6 recorded in September and the fastest monthly increase in business activity seen since December 2015. Any figure above 50 represents growth.