Our monthly economic review is intended to provide background to recent developments in investment markets as well as to give an indication of how some key issues could impact in the future.

Overview

UK INFLATION EDGES HIGHER

UK inflation, as measured by the Consumer Prices Index (CPI), edged higher in July rising from its previous level of 0.5% to 0.6%, according to the latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

MARKED SERVICE SECTOR DOWNTURN

The latest Markit/CIPS UK Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) covering the ‘Services’ sector, reveals that – both output and new business – fell for the first time in three-and-a-half-years, and at the fastest rates since Q1 2009. Employment in the sector was unchanged from June, halting the period of continued job creation which commenced in 2013.

MARKETS

Equity markets worldwide recovered some of their momentum following the Brexit vote, reinforcing July’s improvement with the FTSE100 ending August at 6,718.51 to record a 0.85% gain, although it had touched an intra-month high of 6,941, which was just 2.29% short of its all-time high of 7,103 seen in April 2015. The wider and sometimes more closely followed FTSE250 saw a more impressive rise of 2.6%, to close at 17,732.77 and the junior AIM market finished at 791.32, for an impressive 4.69% jump.

RECORD NUMBER OF PEOPLE NOW IN WORK

Between April and June 2016, with 31.75 million people working, 23.22 million of those in full-time employment and 8.53 in part-time, the employment rate (for those aged from 16 to 64 years) in the UK has hit 74.5%. This is the highest rate seen since comparable records began back in 1971.

BANK OF ENGLAND CUTS INTEREST RATES

In a determined and direct effort to boost the UK’s economy, after the fall-out from the recent Brexit decision, the Bank of England (BoE), for the first time since 2009, unanimously decided to cut interest rates. The rate now sits at 0.25%, an all-time low.